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From: kevin@avalon.hpl.hp.com (Kevin Smathers)
Newsgroups: comp.os.linux.networking,comp.unix.bsd.freebsd.misc
Subject: Re: TCP latency
Date: 24 Jul 1996 22:32:12 GMT
Organization:
Lines: 69
Message-ID: <4t689c$4uq@hplms2.hpl.hp.com>
References: <4paedl$4bm@engnews2.eng.sun.com> <4seo88$fqd@fido.asd.sgi.com> <4sesh4$2ls@dworkin.wustl.edu> <31EE28D3.41C67EA6@star-gate.com>
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Xref: euryale.cc.adfa.oz.au comp.os.linux.networking:46235 comp.unix.bsd.freebsd.misc:24339
>> Of course, I also think that Windows has way too much inertia for
>> a fixed up unix-like OS to dislodge anyway. Most people don't
>> care what OS they run, as long as the applications run ("go with what
>> you know"). [sorry to be gloomy...]
>>
Yes and no. Linux is unlikely to ever become mainstream in the way
that Windows and its brethren (or sistren) are. But Linux use will
probably always continue growing: the features that Linux has which
are unique, the primary one of which is that the source code comes
included, will continue to attract new users, while the addition of
new features will broaden its appeal some.
Unlike proprietary OS'es, Linux won't ever die. And as Microsoft has
shown, large companies aren't very good at guessing in advance of the
market, so it is likely to always be the computer enthusiast market
which shapes the future to operating systems, which MS will by nature
pull up the rear.
>Another area that Unix at least
>on the PC area could possibly have a significant impact is if there
>was a good emulation layer to run Windows 95. You see people have
>invested time and money into the existing Windows based apps and
>they are not liable to switch to an OS just on the merits of its
>performance. You shall the faces of people who know Unix and Windows
>when I ask them if they can run your Win95 apps on FreeBSD would
>you consider FreeBSD? The answer : Heck Yeah!
Windows emulators would certainly have a vast impact on the future of
Linux, but not I think the one you expect. While Linux might pick up
another couple of percent of the market from people who are curious
and inquisitive, the majority of the market would stay with Windows
since as you point out, they don't really care what OS they use. You
have to care to make it worth your while enough to change OS'es (if
you don't believe me, witness the pain threshold of backing up your
disk relative to losing its contents, and compare that with the number
of people who actually back up their disks which is considerably easier
than learning to use a new OS.)
The primary impact that Windows emulators would have on Linux is to stop
commercial mainstream application development cold. In a locked market it
sometimes makes commercial sense to develop for a less popular OS. Since
users of the OS can't run any mainstream software, they aren't as picky
about features so you don't have to compete feature for feature with e.g MS
Word, and there are fewer competitors so with a decent package you can hope
for a good share of the market.
Add in a good emulator and the economics change considerably. Joe
user looks at your word processor which costs $210, and compares it
to MS Word at about $100 discounted which has more features, a larger
base of users, and greater product recognition, and it is very difficult
to expect him to choose your product. Of course users will complain
that there aren't any good programs available for their preferred OS,
but they will continue buying mainstream products as they come out
even where there are native competitors.
Witness AmigaDOS, OS/2, and MacOS. Unless your emulator can make
mainstream applications feel enough like native apps so that it doesn't
bother you that your OS doesn't have any native apps, don't even bother.
(On the other hand niche markets can always attract niche applications.
A telephony SCADA system, or a specialized workflow system can be developed
on any OS you like since the hardware it runs on will be single purpose.)
--
.-----. .-----.
"" "" Jonathan taught the rest of the gulls to fly, but
`.".' Fletcher was the first to discover the next phase of
x V k flight. Shouldn't the student always surpass the master?